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From political instability to “internal armed conflict”: Ecuador’s multiple crisis

DOI
https://doi.org/10.4067/s0718-090x2024005000107
Submitted
July 8, 2024
Published
2024-07-08

Abstract

The year 2023 in Ecuador was characterized by a political crisis that erupted in the midst of escalating criminal violence. While the political crisis was eventually solved by means of new elections, the security crisis has persisted and even worsened during the first months of the presidency of Daniel Noboa. In response, in January 2024, the newly elected president proclaimed a state of “internal armed conflict” and declared 22 criminal gangs as terrorist groups. Against this background, the article reviews recent development in Ecuador as well as the corresponding academic scholarship to discuss two questions: Why and how has Ecuador – in such a short period of time – moved from being among the most peaceful countries in the region to one of the most violent ones? Which consequences of this escalating security crisis can we already observe for Ecuadorian politics and the democratic regime in more general terms? To make sense of Ecuador’s shift from a relatively peaceful to a violence-ridden country, we identify three interrelated sets of causal factors: Ecuador’s increasing role in the transnational drug business; the reconfiguration of Ecuador’s criminal groups; and the social and political context in Ecuador.

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