Influencia autoreportada de las encuestas en la intención de voto y factores explicativos

Lorella Bellia; Martín Echeverría

doi:10.7764/cdi.53.48517

Authors

Lorella Bellia Universidad de las Américas Puebla
Martín Echeverría Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.7764/cdi.53.48517

Keywords:

electoral surveys, political communication, electoral behavior, party identification, candidates' proposals, reference groups, political sophistication, Mexico

Abstract

This paper analyzes the importance that citizens give to electoral polls in their vote intention, considering their intense propagandistic reach and news coverage in Mexico. The traditional factors of electoral behavior were contrasted as independent variables –partisan identification, candidates' proposals, the reference groups, and political sophistication– that predict the polls’ influence. Given the few previous studies in the region, we conducted an exploratory exercise of a mixed and case nature, using an online analytical survey (n=209) and five focus groups in the same five municipalities (n=40 participants). The results showed that the polls are widely consulted, but little considered in formulating the vote, in absolute terms and in relation to other factors of electoral behavior, partly due to a distrust of them. However, it was confirmed that informed voters, i.e., with higher levels
of political sophistication, of a higher socioeconomic level, and who pay more attention to the campaign, are the ones who show a greater poll influence. The research seeks to lay the
foundations for further studies of this phenomenon, which is little addressed in the current literature on electoral behavior.

Author Biographies

Lorella Bellia, Universidad de las Américas Puebla

PhD in Government Sciences and Politics, Master in Public Opinion and Political Marketing from the Institute of Government Sciences and Strategic Development of the Meritorious Autonomous University of Puebla. She has a degree in International Relations from ITESM. She has carried out research stays at the University of Leiden and at the Rey Juan Carlos University. She is a part-time professor at the Universidad de las Américas Puebla (UDLAP). Her lines of research are: political communication, elections, electoral behavior, public policies, electoral surveys.

Martín Echeverría, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla

Professor-researcher at the Center for Studies in Political Communication, Meritorious Autonomous University of Puebla, Mexico. PhD in Communication and Culture (University of Seville), Master in Political Communication and Public Opinion (Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona). Member of the National System of Researchers, Level II. Co-director of the Political Communication Section of the International Association for Media and Communication Research (IAMCR). He investigates media systems, the mediatization of politics, and the reception and effects of the media.

References

Abreu, C. (2020). La teoría de los grupos de referencia (The Theory of reference groups). Ágora, Papeles de Filosofía, 31(2), 287-309. https://doi.org/10.15304/ag.31.2.1063

Abundis Luna, F., Penagos Vázquez, D. P., & Espinosa Granados, A. (2014). Las encuestas preelectorales en México: los retos a futuro (Electoral Polls in Mexico: the Challenges of the Future). Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, 16, 13-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1870-7300(14)72325-7

Álvarez-Gayou, J. L. (2003). Cómo hacer investigación cualitativa: Fundamentos y Metodología

(How to do qualitative research: Fundamentals and Methodology). Paidós.

Álvarez Monsiváis, E. (2018). ¿Quién ganó el debate en el Estado de México? Las encuestas en Twitter como síntoma de posverdad (Who won the debate in Estado de México? Polls on Twitter as a symptom of post-truth). Virtualis, 8(16), 4-29. https://www.revistavirtualis.mx/index.php/virtualis/article/view/248

Asher, H. (2007). Polling and the Public: What Every Citizen Should Know. CQ Press.

Asuad Sanen, N. E. (2010). Programa Estatal de Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable de Puebla (State

Program for Sustainable Urban Development of Puebla) [Archivo PDF]. http://www.economia.unam.mx/cedrus/pdf/Dto%20Planeacion%20Urbana%20Puebla.pdf

Belden, N. (1994). Política y metodología: las encuestas de 1994 (Policy and methodology: the 1994 surveys). Este País.

Brickman Bhutta, C. (2012). Not by the Book: Facebook as a Sampling Frame. Sociological Methods & Research, 41(1), 57–88. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124112440795

Bucy, E. P. & Holbert, R. L. (2013). Advancing Methods and Measurement: Supporting Theory

and Keeping Pace with the Modern Political Communication Environment. Bucy, E. P. & Holbert, R. L. (Eds.). The Sourcebook for Political Communication Research: Methods, Measures and Analytical Technics (pp. 3-17). Routledge.

Cantú, F. & Márquez, J. (2021). The effects of election polls in Mexico's 2018 presidential campaign. Electoral Studies, 73, 102379. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102379

Creswell, J. W. (2014). Research Design: Qualitative, Quantitative and Mixed Methods Approaches. SAGE.

De la Peña Mena, R. (2016). El debate sobre las encuestas electorales en México en 2012 (The debate on electoral polls in Mexico in 2012). Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, (20), 53-80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rmop.2015.12.004

De la Rosa, M. (2017). La precisión e incertidumbre en las encuestas electorales (Accuracy and uncertainty in electoral polls). In P. Ramírez Höhne (Ed.), Ante la crisis de las encuestas, escepticismo en tiempo real (In the face of the polling crisis, skepticism in real time). Instituto Nacional Electoral.

Downs, A. (1957). Teoría económica de la acción política en una democracia (Economic theory of political action in a democracy). In A. Batlle (Ed.), Diez textos básicos de Ciencia Política (Ten basic texts in Political Science) (pp. 93-111). Ariel.

Echeverría, M. (2017). Infoentretenimiento periodístico en la cobertura de las elecciones. El caso de los debates presidenciales (Journalistic infotainment in election coverage. The case of presidential debates). Convergencia. Revista de Ciencias Sociales, (74). https://doi.org/10.29101/crcs.v0i74.4384

Gálvez Muñoz, L. A. (2011). Las encuestas electorales y el debate sobre su influencia en las elecciones (Electoral polls and the debate about their influence on elections). Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, 17(33), 25-43. https://doi.org/10.22201/fcpys.24484911e.2011.11.41334

Flores González, R., & Saldierna Salas, A. (2017). Tendencias en el estudio del comportamiento electoral en México (Trends in the study of electoral behavior in Mexico). Apuntes Electorales, 16(56), 39-65.

Hayashi, Y., Romanowich, P., & Hantula, D. A. (2022). Predicting Intention to Take a COVID-19 Vaccine in the United States: Application and Extension of Theory of Planned Behavior. American Journal of Health Promotion, 36(4), 710–713. https://doi.org/10.1177/08901171211062584

Hernández Sampieri, R., Fernández Collado, & Baptista Lucio, M. P. (2014). Metodología de la

investigación (Investigation Methodology). McGraw Hill.

Kosinski, M., Matz, S. C., Gosling, S. D., Popov, V., & Stillwell, D. (2015). Facebook as a research tool for the social sciences: Opportunities, challenges, ethical considerations, and practical guidelines. American psychologist, 70(6), 543–556. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0039210

Kuschick Ramos, M. (2012). Pronóstico electoral para el Distrito Federal en la elección de 2012 (Electoral forecast for the Federal District in the 2012 election). Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, (12), 127-145. https://doi.org/10.22201/fcpys.24484911e.2012.12.41360

Lau, R. & Redlawsk, D. (2001). Advantages and Disadvantages of Cognitive Heuristics in Political Decision Making. American Journal of Political Science, 45(4), 951-971. https://doi.org/10.2307/2669334

Lipset, S. M. & Rokkan, S. (1992). Estructuras de división, sistemas de partidos y alineamientos electorales (Division structures, party systems and electoral alignments). In A. Batlle (Ed.), Diez textos básicos de Ciencia Política (Ten basic texts in Political Science). Ariel.

López, P. L. (2004). Población muestra y muestreo (Sample population and sampling). Punto Cero, 9(08), 69-74.

Luskin, R. C. (1990). Explaining political sophistication. Political Behavior, 12, 331-361, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00992793

Márquez, C. & Martínez-Hernández, A, A. (2022). El clivaje étnico en México: elecciones presidenciales de 2018 (Ethnic Cleavages in Mexico: the Presidential Elections of 2018). Apuntes Electorales, 21(67), 101-136. https://aelectorales.ieem.org.mx/index.php/ae/article/view/858

Meffert, M. F., Gschwend, T., Huber S., & Pappi, F. U. (2011). More than wishful thinking:

Causes and consequences of voters’ electoral expectations about parties and coalitions.

Electoral Studies, 30(4), 804–815. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2011.08.001

Meyer Rodríguez, J. A, Ríos Calleja, C. A , Sánchez Nuevo, L. A., & Bañuelos Ramírez, R. M. (2013). Significación y efecto de la comunicación mediática en la campaña presidencial de 2012 (Significance and effect of media communication in the 2012 presidential campaign). Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, (14), 31-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1870-7300(13)72313-5

Moreno Álvarez, A. (2003). El votante mexicano: Democracia, actitudes políticas y conducta electoral (The Mexican Voter: Democracy, political attitudes, and electoral behavior). Fondo de Cultura Económica.

Moreno Álvarez, A. (2009). La decisión electoral: votantes, partidos y democracia en México (The electoral decision: voters, parties, and democracy in Mexico). Miguel Ángel Porrúa.

Moreno Álvarez, A. (2018). El cambio electoral: votantes, encuestas y democracia en México (The electoral change: voters, polls, and democracy in Mexico). Fondo de Cultura Económica.

Moreno Álvarez, A. (2022). Las elecciones federales 2021 en México: ¿plebiscitarias o identitarias? (The 2021 federal elections in Mexico: plebiscitary or identity?). Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, (32), 15-31. https://doi.org/10.22201/fcpys.24484911e.2022.32.80605

Moreno Álvarez, A. & Meixueiro Nájera, G. (2012). El Comportamiento Electoral Mexicano en las Elecciones de 2012 en México (The Mexican Electoral Behavior in the 2012 Elections in Mexico). Centro de Estudios Sociales y de Opinión Pública.

Muñíz Muriel, C. (2012). Creando ciudadanos comprometidos: aportación de los hábitos comunicativos al desarrollo de la sofisticación política entre los jóvenes (Creating committed citizens: contribution of communicative habits to the development of political sophistication among young people). Revista Mexicana de Opinión Pública, (12), 55-77. https://doi.org/10.22201/fcpys.24484911e.2012.12.41349

Nicolás Jiménez, Y. N., Alvarado Mena, E., Rodríguez Alvarado, J., & Abarca Rodríguez, A. (2014). Las promesas electorales de los candidatos a la presidencia de la República de Costa Rica, divulgadas en medios de prensa escrita (Electoral Promises of Candidates to the Presidency of the Republic of Costa Rica, Published in Written Media). Revista de Ciencias Sociales (Cr), (147), 15-26. https://doi.org/10.15517/RCS.V0I147.19790

Obermaier, M., Koch, T., & Baden, C. (2015). Everybody Follows the Crowd? Effects of Opinion Polls and Past Election Results on Electoral Preferences. Journal of Media Psychology, 29(2), 69–80. https://doi.org/10.1027/1864-1105/a000160

Paletz, D. L., Short, J. Y., Baker, H., Campbell, B. C., Cooper, R. J., & Oeslander, R. M. (1980). Polls in the Media: Content, Credibility, and Consequences. The Public Opinion Quarterly, 44(4), 495-513. https://doi.org/10.1086/268619

Pedersen, R. T. (2012). The game frame and political efficacy: Beyond the spiral of cynicism. European Journal of Communication, 27(3), 225-240. https://doi.org/10.1177/0267323112454089

Prior, M. (2012). Who Watches Presidential Debates? Measurement Problems in Campaign Effects Research. Public Opinion Quarterly, 76(2), 350-363. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfs019

Romero, V., Paras, P., Pizzolitto, G., & Zechmeister, E. J. (2020). Cultura política de la democracia en México y en las Américas, 2018/19: Tomándole el pulso a la democracia (The political culture of democracy in Mexico and the Americas, 2018/19. Taking the pulse of democracy). USAID.

Roy, J., Shane P. S., Fournierc, P., & Andrew, B. (2015). An experimental analysis of the impact of campaign polls on electoral information seeking. Electoral Studies, 40, 146-157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.08.005

Sampedro, V. (2000). Opinión pública y democracia deliberativa: medios, sondeos y urnas (Public opinion and deliberative democracy: media, polls and ballot boxes). Ediciones Istmo.

Simon, H. A. (1954). Bandwagon and Underdog Effects of Election Predictions. Public Opinion Quarterly, 18(3), 245–53. https://doi.org/10.1086/266513

Stolwijk, S. B., Schuck, A. R., & De Vreese, C. H. (2016). How Anxiety and Enthusiasm Help Explain the Bandwagon Effect. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 29(4), 554–574.

https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edw018

Traugott, M. & Lavrakas, P. J. (2008). The Voter's Guide to Election Polls. Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.

Van Der Eijk, C. & Franklin, M. (2010). Elections and Voters. Macmillan International Higher

Education.

Van der Meer, T. W. G., Hakhverdian, A., & Aaldering, L. (2016). Off the Fence, Onto the Bandwagon? A Large-Scale Survey Experiment on Effect of Real-Life Poll Outcomes on Subsequent Vote Intentions. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 28(1), 46–72.

https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edu041

Vavreck, L. (2007). The Exaggerated Effects of Advertising on Turnout: The Dangers of Self-Reports. Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 2(4), 325-343. https://doi.org/10.1561/100.00006005

Wright, K. B. (2005). Researching Internet-Based Populations: Advantages and Disadvantages of Online Survey Research, Online Questionnaire Authoring Software Packages, and Web Survey Services. Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 10(3). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1083-6101.2005.tb00259.x